Advanced Stats: Cowboys could have redzone success again

st Jags Womens Demarcus Lawrence Jersey , but third downs will be a tall order Everybody knows that the Jacksonville Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.This is going to be a challenge for the Cowboys as they look to keep picking up a win for every loss this season. Their hands are going to be full with a Jacksonville unit that is loaded at all three levels. It goes beyond the simple fact that the Jags defense is good, though. Yes, they’re extremely talented, but where are they talented. Thankfully for us we have Bill Connelly’s methodology at SB Nation to pull from. RED ZONE: The advantage could belong to Dallas shockinglyTo start things off we need to talk about scoring points since that’s kind of the point of offense in general. I think, I’ve been watching the Cowboys so I’m unsure.There are explanations as to what each statistic outlined here is and how it’s measured, they’re all over at Connelly’s stat page which is definitely worth your time. Most of them are self-explanatory and in terms of the colors, the more blue you are the better, the more orange you are the opposite. You can also look at the Jaguars offense versus the Cowboys defense (or any combination of two teams across the league), but obviously we’re looking at Jacksonville’s defensive side of the ball versus the Cowboys offense since it’s their strength and our Achilles heel.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right) The thing that jumps out right away is goal line success rate. Connelly outlines as follows:The Cowboys are very good at this when they get in the red zone, in fact they’re actually the best in the NFL at it. Jacksonville is near the back end of the league as they are obviously allowing the necessary yardage to be picked up on respective downs in that part of the field.This information is obviously very frustrating given the fact that Jason Garrett didn’t go for it on 4th and 1 in Houston last week, but what it suggests is that the Cowboys are great at picking up short yardage. If Dallas gets an opportunity to knock on the door against the Jags then odds are they’re going to break through it.THIRD DOWN: Jacksonville is very good at thisWhile the Cowboys have a shot at capitalizing if they get inside the Jacksonville 3-yard line (all they have to do is cover 97 yards, no big deal) they’ll likely have to face some third downs in order to do so. Jacksonville doesn’t like to let people past them on third down.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right)That’s a whole lot of orange and orange-ish colors on the Cowboys side of things, and almost a totally blue side for the Jaguars. Gulp.Dallas is 17/60 on third downs for the season, but what’s strange is where they are the worst is in the third-and-short category of all places. Here’s how Connelly defines that.It’s actually wild to believe that the Cowboys are statistically more successful at converting 3rd and 1+ than they are at converting 3rd and 1, but it makes sense given how the season has gone. What’s more is not only are the Cowboys not so good at this Womens Taco Charlton Jersey , but the Jaguars are generally solid at holding opponents. The Cowboys will have to overcome great odds here.BLITZ DOWNS: The Jaguars are going to send pressure, and it normally worksJacksonville is not only very good at every level of their defense, they’re also very fast. It’s hard to beat speed no matter where it is on a football field. Dallas has had trouble moving the ball in general this season so it’s likely not going to bode well if Dak Prescott has pressure in his face when having to do so. Look at where things stack up.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right)The way that blitz downs success rate is defined isn’t going to make you feel much better, but for the purposes of the exercise let’s have at it. When blitzes happen the Cowboys are the worst at getting what they want/need. Meanwhile the Jaguars are the second-best in the NFL at it. You can bet your bottom dollar that they’re going to be turning the heat up because of this. The Cowboys offensive line has definitely had better seasons than they’re currently having, but they’re still playing like one of the better units in the NFL. This game is going to demand everything they’ve got because they’re going to have to stop the Jaguars and stop them rather quickly or things could get ugly.There are plenty of other statistics to play around with, these are just a few that we thought stood out. Once again I’d encourage you to check out Bill Connelly’s methodology and since I’m a nice guy you don’t even have to scroll all the way back up. Just click right here.Did this information change the way that you felt entering Sunday afternoon? Are you more or less confident in any one particular element of what’s to come?Scott Linehan customized the Cowboys offense and it failed, he should be held responsible This past offseason we talked here at BTB how the 2018 Cowboys were totally, completely, and unequivocally all in on offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. At one point last season the Cowboys went through a three-game stretch (at Atlanta, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Chargers) where they failed to break double-digits in each of them. This was the first time in the history of the Dallas Cowboys where the club failed to do this in three consecutive games. The first time ever.The Cowboys front office didn’t lose faith in Linehan, though. Over the offseason they actually responded by giving him a custom-tailored suit. Scott got to choose the sleeve length, color of vest, and even what type of tie he wanted to wear (he chose Kellen Moore as his quarterbacks coach). With things completely how he wanted them, it was fair to expect him to look as sharp as possible and dominate the dance floor.Dallas did anything but dance on offense on Sunday in Carolina, and Scott Linehan’s suit looked tattered and four sizes too big. It was as inept of an offensive performance we’ve seen from the Cowboys since Womens Leighton Vander Esch Jersey , well, since last season.In Scott Linehan’s defense the Cowboys wide receivers are headlined by Deonte Thompson, Allen Hurns, Tavon Austin, and rookie Michael Gallup. To Scott Linehan’s detriment, he literally is part of the brain trust tasked with choosing who those names will be, so he hardly gets a pass.The Cowboys offense looked more than inept in Carolina, it looked more than predictable. There are many Cowboys fans who proclaim they can tell what the Cowboys are doing while watching from home, and while that may be true it still doesn’t tell the story of just how completely broken the Cowboys offense truly is.Consider that the offense was given a life that they certainly didn’t deserve at the end of the game. DeMarcus Lawrence and Co. gave Dak Prescott one last chance down eight points. If they scored they could try the two-point conversion and hopefully send the game to overtime. The offense had a chance to erase the nots of earlier. In this moment, their most critical of the young season, the Cowboys offense completely folded. They were terrible on both first and second down, and on third down Dak Prescott fumbled. Think about that. When the pressure was highest they folded harder and faster than ever. That’s a state of dysfunction that’s quite troubling with 15 games left on the schedule.Scott Linehan got things his way this past offseason, that’s well on the record. Considering how flat his offense fell in Week 1 he should be held responsible, but that was the case last season just as well and here we are. Maybe next week the Cowboys will break double-digits.