Giants at Panthers: 6 things to watch in Sunday’s game

Can the underdog New York Giants pull off an upset of the Carolina Panthers on Sunday? Here are six things to watch as the 1-3 Giants try to get their season turned around.Barkley’s touchesComing off a game in which Saquon Barkley ran the ball a season-low 10 times we can likely expect to see a heavy dose of Eli Manning handing the ball to the rookie running back on Sunday. Provided Womens Odell Beckham Jr Jersey , of course, that the Giants are close enough on the scoreboard for the running game to matter.Barkley is averaging 14 rushing attempts per game, tied for ninth in the league in rushing attempts. In two games, though (Dallas, 11 and New Orleans, 10) the Giants have seemed to get away from the running game too quickly.After coach Pat Shurmur admitted during the week that Barkley should have gotten more carries vs. the Saints, don’t expect the same mistake vs. Carolina. The Giants need more big plays, and handing the ball to Barkley is one way to try and get them. Doing so might also help open up some avenues in the passing game.Big plays in the passing gameThrow ‘em short. Throw ‘em long. Throw ‘em somewhere in between. Doesn’t matter — at least according to coach Pat Shurmur and quarterback Eli Manning. Hit it right and you can generate big plays. Unfortunately for the Giants, they haven’t generated enough thus far. The Giants are 23rd in the league in passing plays of 20 yards or more, with just nine through four games. They are one of only three teams without a passing play of 40 yards or more. Superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., the game’s highest paid wide receiver doesn’t have a touchdown and is averaging a career-worst 10.7 yards per catch. Thus far, Beckham has been a highly-paid possession receiver. Or even worse, a decoy.The Giants can talk about picking away at opposing defenses, staying ahead of the chains or on schedule on offense, but this is a team with two of the game’s great play-makers in Beckham and Barkley along with some quality ancillary options. They need to begin to find ways to get those explosive plays in the passing game.Defending the zone read Blake Bortles: 4 carries, 42 yards (a long run of 41 yards)Dak Prescott: 7 carries, 45 yards (a long run of 15 yards)Deshaun Watson: 5 carries, 36 yards (a long run of 10 yards)Taysom Hill: 4 carries, 28 yards (a long run of 19 yards)That’s 20 carries for 151 yards, an average of 7.55 yards per pop, by quarterbacks running against the Giants this season.Sunday Womens Janoris Jenkins Jersey , the Giants face Cam Newton, who could end his career as the most prolific rushing quarterback of all time. Newton needs 27 yards rushing to surpass Randall Cunningham (4,482) for most rushing yards by a quarterback with a single team. Only Michael Vick (6,109) and Cunningham (4,928) have more rushing yards than Newton (4,456) among quarterbacks.You can bet that the Panthers will use a heavy dose of the zone read, which has bedeviled the Giants all season, and other designed quarterback runs until — and unless — the Giants finally show they can handle it.Defensive coordinator James Bettcher knows what’s coming.“He [Newton] is a very physical, big guy who at times in the zone option scheme, will take the matchup. You will be in the right spot, you’ll have the guy that’s supposed to be on the quarterback on the quarterback, and he will take the matchup at times whether that’s just pulling the ball, or maybe that’s giving the ball and taking the matchup,” Bettcher said. “He’s really smart with those kinds of things and they do a nice job putting him in some of those kinds of situations.”The Giants really haven’t successfully defended the zone read yet. Can they figure out a way to do it against perhaps the best quarterback who has ever run it? That’s not fun to think about.Here is part of what Chris wrote about the Carolina offense earlier in the week:Which brings us to McCaffrey Back to more of what Chris wrote earlier in the week:After Newton, the second-year back is clearly Carolina’s most important offensive player. “One thing about him, when I turn the tape on, I see an explosive guy who’s not afraid. He’s shifty, he can do all those things in space, but he’s not afraid to put his foot down, lower his pads, and he’s going to try and run someone over Womens Landon Collins Jersey ,” Bettcher said. “Those are the kinds of backs that as a defensive coach you have a lot of respect for, that when it’s time to put your pads down and get those tough two yards, this is a guy who’s going to put his pads down and get the tough two yards.”Can Olivier Vernon make an impact?Vernon, who had 6.5 sacks a season ago and has 44 in six NFL seasons, could make his season debut Sunday. The Giants, 30th in the league in sack percentage at 3.65 and facing a prolific running quarterback like Newton, could use Vernon’s help.Vernon said this week he wants to be certain he can move well enough not to be a liability. Vernon is the team’s most talented EDGE player. His presence vs. the Panthers would be a huge plus.Oh, those negative playsManning, Shurmur and offensive coordinator Mike Shula all talked during the week about the need for the Giants to eliminate negative plays. That seems obvious, of course. Just how many negative plays have the Giants had on offense? Here’s how many:15 sacks (fourth-most in the league)14 runs for negative yardage (fifth-most)Four passes for negative yardage (that’s unofficial, by my count having gone through every play)Sixteen accepted offensive penaltiesThat is 49 negative plays in 279 potential offensive snaps, including the 16 plays that didn’t count because of penalties. That means that 17.5 percent of the time the Giants have gone backwards. You just can’t overcome that high volume of bad plays, especially when you are running an offense that is trying to minimize risk. The New York Giants have tallied up the losses so far this season, but the 23-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night might be the most memorable. There weren’t as many big swing plays as there were the past couple weeks, but there were more than a few that felt like it.These are some of the most important plays of the game by Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added (EPA). Explainers here (WPA) and here (EPA). Both WPA and EPA presented from the perspective of the offense.Ridley gets free - 6:37, first quarterEPA: 2.8 | WPA: 8.3 percentThe first quarter ended 0-0, something that wasn’t expected. But the Giants had a chance to stop the Falcons pretty early on deep in their own territory. Atlanta faced a second-and-15 from its own 10-yard line. Calvin Ridley lined up to the outside left and broke a slant in front of Janoris Jenkins, who was lined up way off the line. After the catch, Ridley was able to move around a charging Curtis Riley to gain 19 yards on the play. Instead of facing a third down deep in their own territory, the Falcons had a new set of downs at a safer part of the field.Sanu in the zone - 4:39, first quarterEPA: 3.3 | WPA: 9.7 percentLater in the same drive Womens Curtis Riley Jersey , the Giants had another chance to stop the Falcons. Atlanta had a third-and-13 from its own 26 thanks to a first down sack of Matt Ryan by B.W. Webb. Mohamed Sanu was split to the right with Ridley. At the snap, Sanu ran a crossing route straight through the Giants zone. Alec Ogletree was focused on running back Ito Smith, even though fellow linebacker Tae Davis had him picked up. With his eyes elsewhere, Ogletree allowed Sanu to run right by him and pick up a first down.Atlanta didn’t score on the drive, but they eventually reached midfield. This third down conversion helped flip field position and the Giants started their next drive at their own 11 after forcing a punt after having two opportunities to stop the Falcons early and deep in their own zone.Deep to Marvin Hall - 5:00, second quarterEPA: 4.33 | WPA: 15.1 percentOne of the concerns coming into the game was whether the Giants had enough depth in the secondary to deal with the Falcons’ weapons. Even when considering that, Marvin Hall wasn’t what came to mind with those concerns. But he scored the first touchdown of the game. He was lined up wide against Janoris Jenkins, whose technique makes it look like he thought he would have safety help over the top, but once Curtis Riley broke to cover tight end Austin Hooper, Jenkins had little chance to catch up to Hall in the open field.A Sterling grab - 13:46, third quarterEPA: 4.74 | WPA: 16.1 percentThe Giants’ longest play of the game came at the start of the third quarter. Sterling Shepard was the inside man in a trips bunch to the right. He released downfield and beat cornerback Robert Alford across the middle. Shepard ran for 37 yards after the catch and ended up with a 53-yard gain on a third-and-8.On that drive, the Giants would get down to the 1-yard line but failed on an incomplete pass to Scott Simonson on a play designed for Odell Beckham that also had Rhett Ellison wide open in the back of the end zone.Ito on empty - 8:23, third quarterEPA: 3.45 | WPA: 11.3 percentFrom their own 20, the Falcons went empty on a third-and-8. The Giants sent a blitz and that allowed running back Ito Smith to have a wide open middle of the field from the outside for a catch and run and 20-yard gain to the 40.This is a good example of the ability to draw up third and long plays that get a running back into space when pressure is absolutely going to come that don’t involve a crackdown behind the line of scrimmage. It also helped the Falcons continue to drive down the field until...Jenkins forced a fumble - 5:48, third quarterEPA: minus-4.5 | WPA: minus-9.8 percentJanoris Jenkins didn’t have a great night — he hasn’t had a great season — but his recovery and aggressiveness on this play should be commended. Julio Jones caught a ball in front on Jenkins, but the cornerback got his hands in and eventually knocked the ball loose.The play was originally called incomplete on the field — which still would have been a good play by Jenkins — but Pat Shurmur challenged and the play was overturned to a catch and fumble. This was a perfect high-upside challenge for Shurmur. The potential loss of a timeout in a close game was well worth the opportunity at a turnover to keep the Falcons out of the red zone. A deep shot to Beckham? - 5:39, third quarterEPA: 3.64 | WPA: 12.7 percentOn the first play of the next drive, the Giants took a shot downfield to Odell Beckham — and it worked. The Giants ran play-action, Eli Manning was able to step up in the pocket, and Beckham fought through an early defensive hold to get open down the sideline for a 51-yard gain.We should also note that at this point in the game Saquon Barkley had 11 carries for 22 yards and play-action still worked quite well.The Giants’ drive stalled when it got to the Atlanta 18 and they settled for a field goal to make the score 10-6 Falcons.Blah to Barkley - 13:45, fourth quarterEPA: minus-3.1 | WPA: minus-9.4 percentOn the surface Womens Jon Halapio Jersey , this play was another gross third down throw to Barkley behind the line of scrimmage — an 8-yard loss on third-and-2. While that is true, there was a full comedy of errors to make this play so disastrous. First, Chad Wheeler whiffed on a cut block against Brooks Reed (50), who eventually becomes the first person to meet Barkley in the backfield. But also, new center Spencer Pulley stumbled off the snap and then ran into Sterling Shepard, which prevented the center from getting into the open field and making a block. So, instead of Barkley having to potentially make one defender miss, there were three waiting for him as soon as he caught the ball. Coleman has a hole - 7:55, fourth quarterEPA: 3.4 | WPA: 5.2 percentAtlanta took a two-score lead in the middle of the fourth quarter and it came on an aggressive defensive play from the Giants. The Falcons faced a third-and-1 from the Giants’ 30 and the Giants lined up with an 8-man box. Landon Collins rushed off what would be the backside on the run play and the two linebackers overpursued with the movement of the offensive line, which created an open cutback lane for Tevin Coleman. Curtis Riley, the last line of defense as a single-high safety, had stepped over to the other side of the field where Julio Jones lined up. That made him a step behind to catch up with Coleman and a bad angle on top of that left no chance to take down the running back before he got in the end zone.Atlanta had a 93.2 percent win probability with the score.Ellison gets close - 1:11, fourth quarterEPA: 2.8 | WPA: 0.9 percentThe Giants tried to make it close at the end. With just over a minute left, down by 11, the Giants got the ball to the 1-yard line on a 7-yard pass to Rhett Ellison on a third-and-4. With no timeouts left the Giants had to hurry up and they rushed to the line but got stuffed on two straight sneak attempts. They eventually scored on third down but by then too much time had already come off the clock.As poor as the sneak attempts were, the Giants were already facing long odds to score and get the ball back. After Ellison’s reception, Atlanta still had a 96.7 percent win probability.