After looking at the Green Bay Packers’ offensive

statistics in 2018 https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Montravius-Adams-Jersey , it’s time to take a look at their numbers on defense — which were pretty offensive in their own right. Green Bay’s defense looks like a league-average unit on paper, but when you examine the numbers on a per-play basis, things start to break down.It was a tough first year for new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, particularly on the personnel front. Only three players who entered training camp as starters remained on the active roster by week 17: Blake Martinez, Clay Matthews, and Tramon Williams, who had switched positions. With his unit in a constant state of flux due to injury, Pettine had to cobble together game plans with waiver acquisitions and undrafted rookies playing significant roles for weeks at a time.Pettine may or may not return for 2019, depending on the opinion of the team’s next head coach. If he does retain his job, one thing is certain — he’ll need to see the team’s numbers improve next season to remain for 2020 and beyond.Conventional StatsOverallMike Pettine’s unit finished 22nd in points allowed and 18th in total yards allowed. However, they forced just 15 total turnovers in 16 games, fourth-fewest in the NFL.On third downs, the defense actually held up fairly well. Opponents converted 37.3% of their third down opportunities, the 13th-best mark in the league. However, they also converted two-thirds of fourth-down chances. In the red zone, the Packers allowed touchdowns on just over 60% of opportunities, ranking them 20th.PassingGreen Bay’s revolving door of defensive backs managed to hold the opposition to the 12th-fewest total passing yards of any NFL team. That’s nice on its face, but that was helped out by a lower number of pass attempts, since the Packers found themselves trailing frequently. On a per-play basis, opponents’ 6.6 net yards per attempt number was a bit higher than the league average of 6.42 and ranked the team 21st in the league.While the pass rush was able to generate a large number of sacks — 44, which ranked them tied for 8th in the league — turnovers did not follow. The Packers picked off just seven passes all season, tied with two other teams for the second-fewest number in the league. Only the San Francisco 49ers had fewer interceptions, as they recorded just two.RushingGreen Bay’s run defense was hammered much of the season Jake Ryan Jersey , as teams ran the ball against them more than 26 other NFL teams. The injuries on the defensive line probably contributed to that, as did the fact that the Packers were often behind on the scoreboard and opponents tried to shorten the games. Green Bay allowed a yards-per-carry average of 4.3, around the league average of 4.4 and ranking 13th. DVOAOverall, Green Bay’s defense dropped nine spots in DVOA from 2017’s 20th-place finish, ranking 29th in 2018. That was largely due to the team’s awful pass defense ranking, which tends to be the biggest driver of overall rank; of the bottom ten overall defenses, only one — Kansas City — had a pass defense better than 20th in pass DVOA (they were 12th).However, the Packers were near the bottom of the league against both the pass and the run, leading to their overall ranking. One other note is that the Packers faced the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL by opponents’ offensive DVOA, which helps explain why their adjusted results were worse than their raw scores. Finally, the Packers ranked second-last in variance, meaning the team’s performance changed week-to-week more than all but one other team.PassingDespite that 21st ranking in NY/A referenced above, the Packers’ pass DVOA rating was +20.1%, ranking them 28th in the league. Against wide receivers, the Packers were a bit better, ranking 22nd against #1s, 25th against #2s, and 16th against others. However, tight ends and running backs killed Green Bay’s pass defense, as they ranked 27th against the tight end position and dead last against running backs.In terms of directional numbers, the Packers were at their best when defending passes to the right side of the defense (left side of the offense). Probably not coincidentally, that was the side where Jaire Alexander tended to line up most often. On passes in that direction, they actually were above-average in DVOA at -0.2% Lance Kendricks Color Rush Jersey , but they were 29th on passes to the middle (31.5%) and 30th on passes to the left (12.6%). They were also equally bad on short and deep passes, ranking 29th against both; their +76.9% rating against deep left passes was the league’s worst. RushingGreen Bay’s rushing defense was 23rd in the NFL in DVOA this season, which shows a significant difference from their yards per attempt rank of 13th. It’s a bit difficult to pin down a firm reason for this difference, particularly because the Packers ranked 10th in success rate allowed in “power” situations (defined as third or fourth downs or goal-to-go rushes with two or fewer yards to convert). Perhaps the issue lies in the fact that the Packers stuffed runs for no gain or losses at a rate well-below the league average of 19.3%. Green Bay ranked just 29th with a stuff rate of 14.6%. Furthermore, the Packers allowed big runs at a fairly low clip, ranking in the ten best teams in the league in the proportions of yards allowed on 5-plus and 10-plus-yard runs.That suggests that the Packers allowed opponents to pick up 4-5 yards consistently rather than being a boom-or-bust type of rushing defense where the offense would either be stuffed or pick up big gains. ConclusionsMuch of the struggles of the Packers’ defense can again be attributed to a lack of turnovers. Mike Pettine’s group seemed to operate much in the same way that Dom Capers’ units did in that they allowed fairly large yardage totals while failing to take the football away with regularity. For example, the Packers forced just six turnovers over the season’s final ten games. The Packers also won every game in which the defense forced more than one turnover; that happened four times, against the Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, and Falcons.Sure, a healthier secondary can probably help with that. However, despite the Packers finishing as a top-ten unit in sacks, they forced just 15 turnovers all season long. Some of that may simply be bad luck — quarterbacks able to hold on to the football when being sacked better than average, for example — but next year’s defensive coordinator must find a way to generate more takeaways for this unit to be successful.The other way to help the defense will be for the offense to be more effective, both in sustaining drives to keep the defense off the field and in scoring early and giving the team a lead. The latter would help put opposing teams in more passing situations, where a creative coordinator like Pettine can dial up blitzes and hopefully force more turnovers. APC writers hop in the time machine to change a single play." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteAcme Packing Companya Green Bay Packers communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsPackersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTShareTweetShareShareWednesday Walkthroughs: What one play in Packers history would you change?Photo by Rob Carr/Getty ImagesIt’s easy to pick out single games or seasons from Packers history that we wish would have gone differently. Super Bowl XXXII, that one game in Seattle (you know the one) or any loss to the Bears are easy examples. The entire 2017 and 2018 seasons also come to mind. But drilling down to specific plays is a little tougher. How do you determine which one had the most consequences? Which single moment truly made the difference?This is our small attempt to do just that. Here are three plays from recent Packers history we’d like to change.Evan “Tex” Western - Nick Collins’ neck injuryI’m sure plenty of people will think back to the 2014 NFC Championship Game or Super Bowl XXXII and find valid plays to change, but to me one specific moment provided a death blow to the Packers’ defense for nearly a decade. That moment came in week two of the 2011 season.The Packers were fresh off winning Super Bowl XLV behind a stifling defense and the culmination of Aaron Rodgers’ brilliance at quarterback. The 2010 team finished tenth in points scored and ninth in yards gained, but the defense was even better, ranking second in points and fifth in yardage against. One of the biggest reasons for that performance was safety Nick Collins, who made his third consecutive Pro Bowl that season and had a critical pick-six in the Super Bowl.But in week two of the 2011 season, Collins tried to make a tackle on Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Davon-House-Jersey , but hit his head on Stewart’s leg. Collins remained down on the field, eventually being taken off on a stretcher. He never played another down in the NFL, forced to retire as a result of the neck injury suffered on that play. The 2011 season saw the Packers’ defense finish dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards allowed, and despite a 15-1 record and Aaron Rodges winning the MVP award, the Packers lost in their first playoff game.In the succeeding years, the Packers tried to replace Collins, but to no avail. His ability to line up the defense and make the calls on the field was missed greatly. Mid-round draft picks like Jerron McMillian and UDFAs M.D. Jennings couldn’t replace even a fraction of his production, and even when GM Ted Thompson did try to fill the free safety spot with a high draft pick, 2014 first-rounder Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was underwhelming. Perhaps GM Brian Gutekunst has finally succeeded in finding the smart, playmaking replacement for Collins in first-rounder Darnell Savage, a player who profiles very similarly to Collins. But if Collins never suffered a career-ending injury in the first place, I’m confident that the Packers would have made at least another one or two Super Bowl appearances in the years since and that Collins would be under serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.Jon Meerdink - The most costly drop of Jordy Nelson’s careerTo say the 2014 Packers cruised through the latter half of their schedule is quite an understatement. After a tough outing in New Orleans, the Packers emerged from their bye week a renewed team, winning seven of their next eight games. Four of those seven wins were by double-digit margins, including back-to-back wins of thirty or more points.But the lone blemish on their second half schedule, a 21-13 loss to the Buffalo Bills, was tremendously costly. And had but one play been changed, the entire Packers’ season might have been different.Late in the third quarter, the Packers trailed the Bills 16-10. On a 2nd-and-6 play with just 31 seconds left in the quarter, Aaron Rodgers saw Jordy Nelson break free on a double move down the right side of the field and hit his favorite target in stride.But Nelson dropped it. Virtually all alone in the Bills secondary, Nelson had a clear path to the end zone and a late lead for the Packers. Instead, the Packers slogged on for ten more plays before Rodgers was picked off on a throw to Jarrett Boykin. On their ensuing drive, the Bills kicked a field goal Bryan Bulaga Jersey , extending their ultimately insurmountable lead and completing what turned out to be a ten point swing.The drop was just a small part of an uncharacteristically quiet day for Nelson, who was in the midst of his only Pro Bowl season in Green Bay. Nelson managed just five catches for 55 yards on twelve targets that day, his third lowest yardage total of the season. He later struggled to explain the drop. “It’s one of those baffling things. I just short armed it for whatever reason,” he told WISN. “I watched it go right off my fingers.”To be fair, he wasn’t the only Packers receiver who struggled that day. The entire offense was bogged down by a bad case of the stone hands. But Nelson’s was perhaps the most crucial drop, given the high leverage situation in which it took place and the potential (even likely) outcome of the play had he managed to reel in that pass.Now, in most circumstances I think it’s borderline ridiculous to pin huge consequences on a single play. There are literally thousands of plays in a typical football season and it’s often far too simplistic to hold just one up as the reason later events turned out the way they did.But in this particular instance, I think it’s justified. The Packers ended up losing that tight game to the Bills, and as a result finished with a 12-4 record, equal with the Seattle Seahawks. By virtue of their better win position, though, the Seahawks were awarded the top seed in the NFC Playoffs, meaning that the 2014 NFC Championship game would ultimately be played in Seattle.One routine catch could have changed all that. And given that the Seahawks were just 5-3 away from home in 2014, it’s hard not to wonder if the outcome of that horrific game wouldn’t have been different as well.Peter Bukowski - Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury 2014 Pick a million plays from the ‘14 NFC Championship Game to go a different way, the Packers win and get a shot to beat a Patriots team they’d already handled earlier in the season (still Mike McCarthy’s pièce de résistance). But let’s back up for a minute. It was a calf injury suffered late in the season that, to my mind, altered the entire course of this season including and especially that Seahawks game. The original injury likely lead the the calf tear, which caused Rodgers to play essentially on one leg in Week 17 against Detroit. Though he sliced and diced the Cowboys defense, there may have been no controversy around the Dez catch had he been healthy for that game. And we’ve seen what a healthy Rodgers can do against the Seahawks since that game. They won at home in 2015 and 2016, including in ‘15 without Jordy Nelson, thanks in large part to Rodgers’ ability to extend plays and stress than vaunted Seattle zone. If he’s healthy for their tilt in Seattle AND the defense comes to play like it did (certainly no guarantee) they win that game without having to worry about Brandon Bostick or fake field goals.