With only two years of information to lean on for Car

QUEBEC CITY -- Patrick Roy is looking forward to his first winter off in memory.I never really travelled, other than hockey-wise, Roy said Thursday at the Centre Videotron. Im certainly planning to do some trips. It will be very different but Im excited about it.Roy resigned as coach and vice president of hockey operations of the Colorado Avalanche in July, saying he needed more input in decision-making. He isnt seeking another job for the moment and, with a year left on his deal with Colorado, anyone interested in hiring him would need to go through the Avalanche.I have a year left on my contract with the Avalanche and right now, I just want enjoy myself, he said. Its been a great journey and its nice now to take some time off.Roy got a big ovation at the packed new arena when he the dropped the puck in the ceremonial faceoff before a World Cup of Hockey pre-tournament game between North America and Europe. The Quebec City native, a Hall of Fame goaltender with Montreal and Colorado, coached and managed the junior Quebec Remparts before taking his first NHL coaching job in Denver.He said he had no regrets about his time with the Avalanche or how it ended.We had different philosophies and sometimes its better that way, he said. I took my time (deciding to resign) because I was close to my players and I really enjoyed them.He was impressed with the turnout at the 18,259-seat Centre Videotron, where fans are hoping to get an NHL team back after losing the Nordiques in 1995.Its pretty impressive, he said. They did a really good job. Well see in time if its going to happen. It would be a great market for the NHL, but therell be 31 teams next year and theyre all good markets. Franmil Reyes Jersey .com) - The Montreal Canadiens will try to halt their longest losing streak of the season when they host the struggling New York Islanders in tonights clash at the Bell Centre. 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Carr is a quarterback of extremes at this point in his career -- he can look like a superstar and pass-rush fodder. As the Raiders continue to show signs of coming out of their decade-long shell, it remains to be seen whether Carr will be leading them or struggling to keep up.You cant compare Carr to Bortles and Bridgewater without looking first at the men blocking for them. Bortles and Bridgewaters offensive lines have been messes. Carrs line was one of the better units in football last year, and its only going to get better after GM Reggie McKenzie signed star Ravens guard Kelechi Osemele in free agency. Osemele is going to start at left guard and replace the lines weakest player, departed lineman JMarcus Webb, with Gabe Jackson moving to the right side. Thats an enormous upgrade.Carrs offensive line allowed him to do things that were relative luxuries for Bortles and Bridgewater, like breathe in the pocket without fearing for his life. Carr was pressured on only 21.6 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate among starting quarterbacks. A quarterback who gets the ball out quickly can distort that number (see:?Tom Brady), but other metrics suggest that wasnt the case with Carr. He took 2.44 seconds before his typical pass, 15th in the league. Carrs average throw traveled 7.67 yards in the air, which was slightly below league average and one full yard deeper than the typical Bridgewater pass (6.66).The former Fresno State star helped his own cause too: When Carr recognized that a blitz was coming, he often checked to a fade route to receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree?and Andre Holmes, knowing that he was going to have a one-on-one matchup with a big wideout against an often undersized cornerback. Those passes worked well and were often delivered in stride: Carrs QBR on non-screens against the blitz was 72.2, eighth best in the league.You can see his prowess on a 5-yard touchdown pass to Andre Holmes against the Jets in Week 8. The Jets attempt to bring pressure with two linebackers, and while they do a great job of disguising their blitz until just before the snap, Carr can see it coming. He lobs up a fade to Holmes in a perfect spot and gets it up so quickly that corner Buster Skrine never even turns around to find the ball. Its pitch-and-catch.Carrs effort against the Jets shows why its so difficult to evaluate him. This was his finest performance of the year according to QBR. Carrs 93.6 figure dwarfed the competition. No other passer posted a single-game QBR against the Jets in the 80s, let alone the 90s. (QBR, remember, isnt adjusted for the strength of opposition.) Carr finished the day with 333 passing yards and four touchdowns against the leagues ninth-best pass defense.And yet, as I noted in watching the game back in November, the Raiders offensive line dominated the Jets up front. It was one of the single-best performances I saw from an offensive line all year. The Jets pressured Carr on 13.9 percent of his dropbacks when New Yorks yearly average was 29 percent. Thats how Carr ended up with enough time and space to make a perfect throw in stride to Holmes for a 45-yard touchdown. It helped when the Jets didnt get home and didnt bother to tackle Crabtree on the end of a 36-yard touchdown, and pulled a Keystone Cops routine in letting Taiwan Jones turn a swing pass into a 59-yard touchdown.Carr picked on Antonio Cromartie in that game, and at his best, he was exploiting the others team weakest links in lieu of forcing the ball to Cooper. In his second-best game of the year, against the Chargers the previous week, he abused Chargers safety Jimmy Wilson, who was filling in for Eric Weddle and was one of the worst regulars in the league before being cut in December. He lobbed a beautiful wheel route to Clive Walford over Wilson for one score and deliberately threw a bomb into double coverage,?trusting that Cooper would outjump Wilson, which he did. As with the Jets, the Chargers helped, whiffing on tackles on a tunnel screen to Cooper for a 49-yard score, with Cooper breaking Wilsons ankles. In the second half, the Raiders ran a tunnel screen to Crabtree for another score, with Jahleel Addae missing the tackle this time.This feels like an offense that plays to Carrs strengths. With Carr spending his time at Fresno State as a spread quarterback, offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave put his QB in the shotgun on 68.1 percent of Oaklands offensive snaps, the ninth-highest rate in the league. Carrs QBR in the shotgun was 23rd in the league and 30th when he was under center. The Raiders throw early and often to try to stay out of negative situations. On first-and-10 in 14-point games, the Raiders threw 62.5 percent of the time, which was the highest pass percentage in the NFL. Carr doesnt throw deep all that often -- he was 23rd in the percentage of throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air -- but its where he was at his best:Carr looked like the best deep passer of the three based on 2015 alone. Bortles threw deep more frequently, but as I mentioned in my piece on the Jacksonville starter, many of his deeper throws were jump balls for Allen Robinson, who did most of the work in turning them into receptions. While Carr did have throws like that -- the lob over Wilson to Cooper I mentioned above is an obvious example -- there were many more times I noted touch and deftness on Carrs passes downfield.Its another Oakland credo to go after enormous receivers. Carrs average pass went to a receiver who was 74.3 inches tall (a little over 6-foot-2), giving him the fourth-largest receiving corps in football. (Jacksonvilles grouping was third.) Sadly, they werent always his friends. Oaklands pass-catchers, which will return virtually unchanged in 2016, dropped 5.1 percent of Carrs throws last year. That was the fifth-worst rate in the league. Its hard to see these receivers combining to drop as many passes in 2016, particularly Cooper, who should be healthier after struggling through plantar fasciitis a year ago. While analyses suggesting Cooper dropped 18 passes seem off the mark, ESPN Stats & Information has Cooper down for 10 drops on 126 targets, the second-highest total in the league behind Tampas Mike Evans.The one perhaps concerning quirk surrounding Carrs 2015 season is what happened as it went along: Namely, Carr got worse. A lot worse. His QBR during Weeks 1-9, covering Oaklands first eight games, was 11th in the league at 66.6. During Oaklands final eight games, Carrs QBR dropped to just 35.1, leaving him 28th out of 29 passers. Only Bortles, coincidentally, was worse. Carrs decline came under duress. He had the leagues lowest pressure rate during the first half of the year, at 17.6 percent. Over the final eight weeks, that pressure rate leaped up to 25.0 percent. That was only eighth in the league, buut it was enough to help throw Carr off track.ddddddddddddCarrs worst performances, ironically, came in two of the three games the Raiders won in the second half of the season. He was dismal against the Broncos in a 15-12 victory driven by Khalil Macks five sacks, although Carr did throw a perfect touchdown pass on what is admittedly my favorite play, the fake screen and go. (Musgrave set up the touchdown by calling the same screen twice earlier in the game.) The Broncos got enough pressure on Carr to hold the second-year passer to an 11.4 QBR.Two weeks later, against the Chargers, Carr could muster only a 22.2 QBR in a game that included the Raiders trying to lateral their way into a touchdown at the end of the first half before Chargers wideout Dontrelle Inman was forced by injuries into duty as a safety in overtime. His day against San Diego started with an example of how the Raiders trust Carr to do a lot and how hes still a player learning on the fly. Carr made the wrong read on a run-pass option (RPO), declining to hand the ball to his running back on a power play and instead trying to force a stick route up the seam, which was tipped at the line and intercepted. Musgrave entrusted Carr with the keys to the car on RPOs in 2016, and this was a case where it felt like it was too much, too soon. That will happen with young quarterbacks.As Chase Stuart notes to me often, splits happen, and there might not be a rhyme or reason to why Carr declined in the second half. As a good example, consider what Carr did in the red zone as a rookie in 2014. During a relatively unimpressive season, Carr posted the leagues best QBR (94.0) in the red zone, throwing 18 touchdowns against one pick as the Raiders averaged a league-best 5.69 points per red zone trip. In 2015, with the Raiders improving on offense, they fell back to 10th in points per red zone trip and Carrs QBR inside the opposing 20 was 19th in the league at 68.3. I wrote last month that red zone performance tends to be random from year to year, and Carrs two seasons embody that finding.At the same time, though, it seems logical that you would want your second-year passer to improve -- not decline -- as the year progresses. A passer getting better as the year continues is a passer figuring things out for good, eliminating mistakes and replacing them with the knowledge gained from NFL experience. Anecdotally, that makes all kinds of sense. We can see if it checks out in reality, though.To test that idea out, I took every second-year passer since 1990 who threw 150 passes in each of the two halves of their season and compared how they performed in each half. Since we dont have QBR going back that far, I used adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), which is a better all-in-one metric than passer rating. By AY/A, the difference between Carrs first half (8.40 AY/A) and second half (5.83 AY/A) was 2.57 adjusted yards per attempt. Of 56 quarterbacks, that 2.57-yard per attempt decline places Carr ... 56th in terms of half-to-half decline. Bortles, notably, is 12th among AY/A improvers despite finishing last in second-half QBR; in other words, while his numbers improved during the second half of the season, QBR suggests he was actually playing worse during the final eight games.The group of 10 quarterbacks who improved the most from half to half during their second season include a Hall of Famer in Troy Aikman and an MVP in Cam Newton, alongside Jake Plummer, Vince Young, Timm Rosenbach, Josh Freeman, JaMarcus Russell, Tony Banks, Tyler Thigpen and Joey Harrington. During their second year, their combined AY/A mark in the first half was 5.11, improving all the way to 6.75 AY/A in the second half. Then, in their third season, those 10 passers combined to throw more interceptions (116) than touchdowns (91) and posted a AY/A figure of 5.28. They gave away basically all of their collective gains.Meanwhile, the group of 10 passers (leaving out Carr because he hasnt played his third season) who declined the most during the second half of their second season includes Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, Brian Griese, Eli Manning, Trent Edwards, Browning Nagle, Trent Dilfer, Shaun King, Andrew Luck?and Musgraves former charge in Minnesota, Christian Ponder. They were great in the first half of their second season (6.86 AY/A) and dismal in the second half (5.10 AY/A). You can probably see where this is going. In their collective third year, these 10 passers averaged 6.48 adjusted yards per attempt, far closer to what the first halves of their second seasons said.This is too small of a sample to really say anything definitive about how quarterbacks develop, but at the very least, theres not any evidence saying that its important for a passer to get better as their second year goes along, or that a decline portends ominous things about his future. Carr might succeed, or he might fail, but we dont know any more about whether that will happen based on the timing of when he played well in 2015.There is something that will have to improve, though, fluke or otherwise: Late in games, for whatever reason, Carr was a mess. He posted a 19.9 QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime, which was the second-worst mark in the league ahead of Nick Foles. Bortles, one spot ahead of Carr, finished at 31.2. Seven of Carrs 13 picks came in the fourth quarter and OT, despite the fact that he threw only 31 percent of his passes during that time frame. Only Matthew Stafford had a higher interception rate in the fourth quarter/OT (6.8 percent) than Carr (5.3 percent).Some will say that Carr and the Raiders need to learn how to win, as if thats a lesson you unlock once and never need to understand again. It always has been a silly, meaningless concept. Chances are that Carrs late-game struggles are a fluke, especially given that his fourth-quarter/OT QBR as a rookie was 17th in the league, roughly NFL average. With only two years of information to lean on for Carr -- or any of these passers -- were often overreacting to small splits both good and bad for analysis.In 2016, its less important that Carr get better in the fourth quarter/OT or during the second half of the season, if only because that will happen by sheer chance. Its more important that he gets better on the whole. After adding an incredible run-blocker in Osemele, the Raiders probably will try to run the ball more on first down, taking some of the workload off of Carr. In return, hell need to be more effective on the short-to-intermediate throws that make up the bulk of Musgraves playbook, which will require help from Cooper, who will require help from the injury gods.As you think about Carr and Bortles and Bridgewater and try to analyze them, the reality repeatedly sets in that so much depends upon the players and coaches around them. Even with Adrian Peterson in Minnesota and Allen Robinson in Jacksonville, most people would choose Carrs supporting cast before Bortles or Bridgewaters. And that alone might be the best case for thinking hell be the best quarterback of the three in 2016. ' ' '