Natural gas futures (NYSEARCA:UNG) for January settled +3.8% to $2.328/MMBtu, as new forecasts for chilly temperatures to close out the month allayed fears among traders and analysts of an impending drop below $2.
UGAZ News Natural Gas: Lower Production And Higher Heating Demand Push Market Back Into Deficit Seeking Alpha - Article.8h ago Cooler weather outlook lifts natural gas prices Seeking Alpha - Article.11h ago UNG: Natural Gas Prices Oversold Following Warm Weather Report Seeking Alpha - Article.22h ago Upside Potential To Natural Gas Prices Remain Limited With Mild Weather And Strong Production Weighing Seeking Alpha - Article.1d ago
Weather model forecasts will then aid either the deficit or the surplus. If the weather is bullish, then the deficit increases or the surplus narrows. If the weather is bearish, then the deficit shrinks or the surplus increases.
So, the average price of natural gas will be largely dependent on production growth, and given that we hit a peak of ~97 Bcf/d just a few weeks ago, we can't count on production to fall sustainably in 2020 just yet.
As for the short-term outlook, the sustained bullish weather scenario remains elusive for now. The good news is that ECMWF-EPS will publish its latest long-range outlook today, so we will be watching that closely. If the transition period into January is bullish, then we will be going long UGAZ.
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